A — Strait Closure: Status and Military Situation

SourceDateDetail
Lloyd's List Intelligence26 Mar 202626 vessels confirmed through toll booth; closure level estimate
Wikipedia — Hormuz crisis trackerUpdated 28 MarMayuree Naree grounding; 3 ships turned away; running casualty count
Fox News liveblog (Adm. Brad Cooper / CENTCOM)25 Mar 202692% of Iranian large naval vessels destroyed; drone/missile rate down 90%
Al Jazeera26 Mar 2026IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri killed in Israeli airstrike
CNBC26 Mar 2026Tangsiri killed; confirmed by multiple sources
Jerusalem Post26 Mar 2026Tangsiri strike confirmation
NBC News liveblog26 Mar 2026Day 26 situation summary

B — The Tehran Toll Booth

SourceDateDetail
Fortune26 Mar 2026Toll booth mechanics; $2m per voyage; yuan payment
Al Jazeera26 Mar 2026Araghchi confirms selective passage system
Argus Media26 Mar 2026Shipping intelligence; vessel tracking
Iran International (Boroujerdi interview)Mar 2026“Charging some vessels $2 million to pass through the strait”
EuronewsMar 2026Japan/South Korea non-hostile status; Turkey vessel permitted
Al Jazeera16 Mar 2026India bilateral passage; 3 warships deployed for escort
Soufan Center23 Mar 2026Coalition fracturing analysis; bilateral carve-outs

C — Iran Peace Proposal and Sovereignty Demand

SourceDateDetail
NPR25 Mar 2026Iran rejects US 15-point plan; 5-point counter-proposal via Pakistan
Al Jazeera25 Mar 2026Iranian sovereignty demand over Strait of Hormuz
CNBC25 Mar 2026Five conditions summary; diplomatic status
UN Security Council recordsMar 2026Resolution 2817 (13 votes); Bahrain second draft

D — Oil Price and Energy Markets

SourceDateDetail
BlackRock / Larry Fink (BBC Big Boss Interview)25 Mar 2026“We’ll have a global recession”; two extreme scenarios
Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchMar 2026Oil price scenarios; supply disruption modelling
Oxford EconomicsMar 2026Economic cost scenarios; food price forecast +2% global
The National (UAE)12 Mar 2026Oxford Economics food price forecast
IEA Oil Market ReportMar 2026Supply disruption quantification; alternative supply analysis

E — Fertiliser: Nitrogen, Urea, and the Food Crisis

SourceDateDetail
CNBC / Dawid Heyl (Ninety One)Mar 20265% yield impact estimate; “a lot of traded supply at risk”
Argus Media25 Mar 2026Urea price data: $482 pre-war to ~$700/tonne
Anadolu Agency25 Mar 2026Fertiliser price data; American Farm Bureau Federation letter to Trump
Farmdoc Daily / University of Illinois23 Mar 2026Nitrogen fertiliser market analysis; spring planting window
Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceMar 2026Weeks to restart fertiliser production post-ceasefire; USAID status
WFP (World Food Programme)Mar 2026318 million at crisis hunger (IPC Phase 3+); <35% funding
UNCTADMar 2026Humanitarian aid shipments slower; maritime disruption impact
UN News23 Mar 2026UNCTAD humanitarian shipping report
International Fertilizer AssociationMar 2026Gulf market share data; sulphur tightness pre-crisis

F — Maritime Insurance

SourceDateDetail
LMA (Lloyd's Market Association) statement23 Mar 2026War-risk premium levels; VLCC coverage costs
Lloyd's CEO Patrick Tiernan (Bloomberg TV)19 Mar 2026Insurance market outlook; normalisation timeline avoidance
Stimson Center analysisMar 2026Long-term insurance repricing; structural cost analysis
Marsh McLennan war risk deskMar 2026Aviation war-risk: $36,000–$120,000 per round trip

G — Aviation and Jet Fuel

SourceDateDetail
IEA / S&P Global PlattsMar 202635–40% jet fuel supply disruption; spot price doubling
IATA operational dataMar 2026Dubai throughput reduction; Emirates network suspension
Xeneta / TAC IndexMar 2026Air cargo rates +70% Asia-Europe
Aviation WeekMar 2026War-risk insurance for flights; overflight ban scope
Bloomberg IntelligenceMar 2026Airline hedging exposure; hedge roll-off timeline

H — Sulphur and Industrial Cascades

SourceDateDetail
International Fertilizer AssociationMar 2026Gulf sulphur market share: 44–50% of globally traded volumes
Argus Media sulphur market reportsMar 2026Price and volume disruption; phosphate processing impact
Fertilizers EuropeMar 2026European phosphate supply chain; Moroccan/Jordanian processing dependency
SEMI industry associationMar 2026Semiconductor sulphuric acid consumption; fab chemical requirements
International Rubber Study GroupMar 2026Vulcanisation sulphur volumes; tyre industry supply chain
IEA Critical Minerals Market ReviewMar 2026Sulphuric acid in lithium/cobalt/nickel leaching
USGS Mineral Resources2025–26Critical mineral processing chemical requirements

I — Long-Term Structural Damage

SourceDateDetail
Wood MackenzieMar 2026LNG terminal reconstruction timeline; Ras Laffan damage assessment
S&P Global PlattsMar 2026Qatar LNG capacity outlook; 2029–30 recovery estimate
SWF Institute / IMF Gulf chapter2025–26Gulf sovereign wealth fund assets: ~$3.5–4 trillion
Reuters energy deskMar 2026Well capping; upstream production suspension estimates

J — Humanitarian System and Mortality

SourceDateDetail
WFP / IPC Phase 3+ dataPre-war 2026318 million at acute hunger threshold; 40+ countries
Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceMar 2026USAID operational collapse; emergency response gap
IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute)Mar 2026Yield impact modelling: 5–15% range
UNCTAD / UN News23 Mar 2026Humanitarian shipping disruption; slower, more expensive, less predictable

About this index

This reference list covers sources cited across the Skeptical Sanity Hormuz Crisis series. Sources are as reported at the time of writing. Some links may require subscription access. Working documents only — not for external distribution without permission.

Series articles: The Toll Booth · The Famine · Long-Term Costs · Jet Fuel · Sulphur · Management Summary